Hints of a not so beasterly easterly on the horizon

Tonight's ECM (European model) operational run shows an easterly wind becoming established over Ireland by the end of next weekend. However, the airmass does not tap into a deep cold source i.e. there is a distinct absence of entrenched cold over the continent.

In such a setup, we could expect slightly below daytime temperatures for the time of year and frost at night. It would be largely dry away from the east and south coasts where convective activity could develop as cold air passes over the warmer Irish and Celtic seas and produce mixed wintry showers. The GFS (US model) shows something similar with a Scandinavian blocking high, but its' ensembles only show slight to moderate support for such an outcome. The GEM (Canadian model) and UKMO also show heights over Scandinavia, but easterly winds do not progress further west than Britain. Plenty of interesting prospects for the end of next week into the following week, particularly in light of a forecast polar stratospheric warming. For more, read here.