No Beast, but there will be a Bite in the air

To Beast or not to Beast? That is the question.

A spell of colder, drier weather is on the way for the remainder of this week and into the start of next week. Daytime temperatures will be close to normal for the time of year (6-9c) while overnight frost will become a feature of our weather. Winds will veer from southerly during Wednesday to southeasterly during Thursday, which will provide good drying conditions for waterlogged soils (and clothes on the line).

Much of today's model output suggests that the Atlantic will attempt to reassert its influence on our weather by midweek next week, but there is little indication we will see a rapid return to the very unsettled weather of the past fortnight. Equally, there is no indication that the coming week’s cooler weather will evolve into a much colder spell.

In essence, northwestern Europe will find itself in a meteorological no man’s land by early next week with Atlantic systems never too far away to our west and heights extending between Greenland and Scandinavia keeping us in a relatively slack southeasterly airflow. The outcome depends on the orientation of these areas of high pressure and the extent to which the Jetstream interacts with expected cold weather over North America.

From a cold weather perspective in Ireland and Britain, the JMA (animation) provides the most interesting output of the evening model runs as it sets up a possible colder airmass extending over northwest Europe just beyond Day 10. The KMA and CFS produce a similar outcome. The GFS (US) and GEM (Canadian) models show Atlantic systems encroaching from our southwest by or just after mid-week. The ECM (European) looks determined to keep Ireland in a meteorological no man’s land.

All model output for Day 10 is featured below. The images feature 850hPa (approx 1500m) temperatures, which provide a good indication of likely weather at the surface.

Something has got to give, and we will know more about next week’s weather prospects in the coming day or two. The Atlantic usually wins the day in this neck of the world, but the outlook can change rapidly in light of the warming going on in the Polar stratosphere as will be the case in the coming days.

This finely balanced situation is best summed up by the 12Z ECMWF EPS clusters showing a near 50/50 split between a cold SE/E airmass and a more Atlantic-influenced airmass dominating our weather. In forecasting terms, the long-range outlook for now is far from determined.

At things stand, there is plenty of drier and brighter weather to come over the 7 days or so.