Ireland Falling Short of Climate Targets as Emissions Gap Widens

Ireland is set to miss its legally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets, with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revealing a growing gap between projected emissions reductions and the country’s Climate Act goals.

In its latest emissions projections for 2024 to 2055, published on Tuesday, the EPA warns that current policies and measures, even if fully implemented, will only achieve a 23% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2018 levels. This falls well short of the 51% cut mandated under Ireland’s Climate Act and represents a downward revision from last year’s projection of a 29% reduction.

The country is already exceeding its first Carbon Budget (2021–2025) by 8 to 12 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, and the second budget (2026–2030) is now projected to be overshot by a much larger margin—between 77 and 114 million tonnes—due in part to carryover from earlier years.

The EPA highlights transport, industry, and residential buildings as the sectors furthest from meeting their emission limits by 2030, with reductions projected at just 21%, 12%, and 22% respectively. Agriculture, which remains a significant contributor to Ireland’s emissions, is expected to reduce emissions by up to 16%, though recent scientific updates complicate direct comparisons with previous targets.

Laura Burke, Director General of the EPA, said:

“While emissions are trending downward, the gap between Ireland’s projected emissions and its national and European targets is widening. This signals a pressing need for greater action across all sectors of the economy. The focus must now shift from policy promises to effective implementation.”

Burke also expressed concern over slow progress in critical areas such as the electrification of transport, expanding renewable energy, and carbon reduction efforts in agriculture. “Momentum is building towards a low-carbon future,” she said, “but we must accelerate and scale up the transition if we are to meet our climate commitments.”

Sector Highlights:

• Agriculture: Emissions may decrease by up to 16% depending on the uptake of measures such as reduced nitrogen fertiliser use and bovine feed additives. However, the sector faces challenges incorporating new scientific data into emissions estimates.
• Transport: With policies promoting electric vehicles and biofuels, emissions could fall by up to 21%, but road freight remains a growing source of emissions.
• Residential: Projected to reduce emissions by up to 22%, largely due to increased installation of heat pumps and shifts away from fossil fuels.
• Industry: Emissions reductions of just 12% are expected despite plans to adopt carbon-neutral heating and biomethane.
• Energy: The sector has seen a 21% drop in emissions from electricity generation between 2022 and 2023, with further reductions anticipated through renewable energy expansion.
• Land Use: Emissions are expected to rise sharply (39% to 95%) as forestry matures and transitions from a carbon sink to a source, partially offset by afforestation and peatland rehabilitation efforts.

Mary Frances Rochford, EPA Programme Manager, emphasised the importance of updating carbon budgets to reflect the latest agricultural emissions science, stating that “accurate data is essential to align sectoral targets with Ireland’s overall climate goals.”

The EPA will release full details in its forthcoming report, Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2024 to 2055, available on its website.