Atlantic Hurricane Activity Lags Behind Early 2025 Forecasts

Following earlier indications that suggested Tropical Storm Gabrielle could form soon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has clarified that no tropical cyclone development is expected over the next seven days.

In its latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued this morning, the Miami-based NHC stated that the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico show no signs of tropical cyclone formation in the coming week. It said atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently not conducive to storm development.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which was initially forecast to be above average in activity, has so far been relatively quiet. Early predictions had expected a higher number of named storms, but conditions in the tropical Atlantic have remained less favourable for cyclone formation than anticipated.

As of September 7, 2025, the season has produced six named storms, including one hurricane. Notably, Hurricane Erin rapidly intensified to a Category 5 storm in mid-August, making it the most intense Atlantic hurricane of the season so far.

However, the overall activity has been below the expected levels, with the season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index at approximately 39.3 units, indicating a relatively quiet start compared to historical averages.

While the season has been quieter than expected, forecasters anticipate increased activity in the coming weeks. Favourable conditions, such as warmer sea surface temperatures and reduced wind shear, are expected to enhance the potential for storm formation as the season progresses.