Gabrielle on Horizon as Atlantic Storm Season Awaken

A tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic is showing signs of development, according to the US National Hurricane Center.

The system is expected to strengthen over the next few days and could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which is next up in the 2025 name rotation, as it moves west-northwest.

Long-range weather models, though far less reliable beyond five days, indicate the storm may trace a path similar to Hurricane Erin.

Erin avoided the Caribbean islands and curved towards Iceland, where it stalled to the northwest of Ireland and ended August’s long dry spell.

There is still significant uncertainty, however, about the current system’s strength and track.

Today’s latest NHC update is similar to a forecast issued earlier this month when the the US forecaster quoted a 90% chance of Tropical Storm Gabrielle evolving from a tropical wave that had formed off the Cabo Verde Islands.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has so far been quieter than forecast. Only a handful of named storms have formed and none have yet caused widespread damage. Meteorologists had warned of a potentially busy season due to warm ocean temperatures, but the number and intensity of storms have so far stayed below early projections.