90% chance of Tropical Storm Gabrielle forming this week
A broad low-pressure system situated between the Windward Islands and the coast of West Africa is showing increasing signs of organisation and has a 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours. If it strengthens, it will be named Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
The system is moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour. While it poses no immediate threat to land, long-range weather models, though far less reliable beyond five days, indicate the storm may trace a path similar to Hurricane Erin.
Erin avoided the Caribbean islands and curved towards Iceland, where it stalled to the northwest of Ireland and ended August’s long dry spell. There is still significant uncertainty about the current system’s strength and track. Today’s latest update from the US National Hurricane Center is similar to a forecast issued earlier this month, when forecasters quoted a 90 percent chance of Tropical Storm Gabrielle evolving from a tropical wave that had formed off the Cabo Verde Islands.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been quieter than initially forecast. Seasonal outlooks predicted an above-average season with 13 to 19 named storms, six to ten hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. As of mid-September, only six named storms have formed, and just one, Hurricane Erin, reached hurricane strength. Persistent dry air from the Sahara has suppressed storm development, while wind shear has hindered the organisation of tropical systems. Relatively stable atmospheric conditions, with a reduced temperature gradient between the tropics and subtropics, have also limited storm activity.
Despite the slow start, meteorologists expect activity to increase in the coming weeks. Patterns such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which promotes storm formation, are expected to influence the Atlantic by late September or October. A developing Central American Gyre could shift potential activity toward the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
While Tropical Storm Gabrielle is still in the early stages, its formation signals that the quiet 2025 season may be approaching a more active phase. Forecasters continue to monitor the system closely as the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.
