Met Éireann has issued its extended forecast for November, suggesting that while the first half of the month will remain unsettled, drier conditions could arrive in the latter weeks.

The outlook for the week beginning 3 November indicates a continuation of low pressure dominating Ireland’s weather, bringing frequent rain and showers. Precipitation totals are expected to be above normal, with temperatures slightly above average for the time of year.

The following week, beginning 10 November, is also likely to see wet conditions, although the influence of low pressure is expected to weaken slightly. Rainfall is forecast to remain above normal, but not as persistent as the previous week, with temperatures again slightly above seasonal norms.

From 17 November onwards, Met Éireann signals a shift towards higher pressure and more settled weather. Rainfall is forecast to be below average and temperatures close to normal or slightly above for this time of year. The trend continues through the final week of November, with precipitation around average or slightly below and generally settled conditions expected across the country.

The UK Met Office is also suggesting a more settled second half of November.

It says, “A gradual transition from an unsettled westerly type to something less unsettled is anticipated through the middle part of the month. With time, greater incidences of high pressure look set to affect the UK, bringing more in the way of dry weather, but also increasing the chances of overnight fog and frost. By later in the month, the majority of any wet and windy weather is more likely to affect areas further to the north. Overall, temperatures look to pan out near to a little above average.”

Long range weather models are also hinting at a relaxing of the current Atlantic regime. The ECMWF, the European weather forecasting model, suggests rising pressure in Ireland towards the middle of the month.

The rising heights are reflected in the GEFS ensembles for the next 16 days.