High and Dry until mid-May

Ireland’s weather will remain under the influence of high pressure for the opening half of May, bringing abundant sunshine and minimal rainfall.

All major weather forecasting models indicate high pressure remaining in charge of our weather with average temperatures into early next week (11-16 °C), before an increase in temperatures during the second half of the week (15-19 °C).

The remarkable dry start to the month mirrors the first half of April when some parts of Ireland recorded trace rainfall totals and all of Ireland enjoyed extensive sunshine.

The second half of April was much more unsettled however, with Atlantic frontal systems bringing spells of heavy rain.

Drying conditions are currently excellent across Ireland, with an ongoing increase in Soil Moisture Deficits (SMDs) as the dry spell continues. Grass growth will consequently decrease slowly over the next 16 days following rapid growth last weekend and during much of this week.

The latest output from the Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model for the next 16 days up to 17 May supports the outlook for low rainfall totals, with a low to moderate chance of showers in the second half of the forecast period. The ensembles model, which runs 32 forecast variations (perturbations) to account for uncertainties in input data, also indicates a gradual rise in temperatures next week. The red lines in the graphic suggest the median of all 32 variations.

Model data, which is taken from a sample location in the Midlands, highlights the continuation of high pressure near or over Ireland throughout the forecast period.