Long range weather forecast for Ireland

Temperatures across Ireland will remain warm, ranging from the high teens to mid-20s, through at least the middle of next week.

Aside from some scattered, possibly thundery showers expected this evening in North Munster and South Connacht, conditions will be largely dry and settled throughout the coming week and into early next week.

Sunshine levels will be well above normal—more than double the average for this time of year. Western parts of the country may even challenge the year’s highest temperature so far: 25.9°C, recorded in Athenry, Galway, last month.

Daytime highs will generally reach around 19°C in the east, climbing to 24°C or higher in the west. Overnight temperatures will remain mild, with no risk of frost.

The settled conditions are being driven by persistent high pressure over or near Ireland, which has brought an exceptionally dry start to May. This high pressure system is expected to dominate until at least mid-week next week.

However, weather models are indicating that high pressure may begin to weaken towards the end of the forecast period, allowing Atlantic systems to approach. This could bring some rain in the second half of next week, with temperatures slipping back into the mid to high teens.

Forecast data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) covering the next 16 days up to 29 May continues to support the outlook for below-average rainfall overall. However, it also points to an increased chance of showers or more prolonged rain later in the period.

The GFS ensemble model, which runs 32 variations to account for forecast uncertainties, suggests a gradual decline in temperatures after mid-week next week. Data from a Midlands sample location shows high pressure influence weakening around day 10 of the forecast.