Unsettled Conditions to Persist into Next Week
The current spell of unsettled weather is forecast to continue into the coming week, with frequent outbreaks of rain and scattered showers expected across much of the country.
Weekend Outlook: Showery Interludes and Transient Sunshine
Saturday will feature a mix of sunny intervals and scattered showers, particularly across western and northern areas. Afternoon temperatures will range from 14°C to 19°C, with the highest values likely in Leinster and cooler readings closer to the Atlantic seaboard. South-westerly winds will remain moderate to fresh in strength.
During Saturday night, a frontal system will track eastward across Ireland, introducing a period of rain, occasionally heavy, particularly in Atlantic coastal counties. The rain will fragment into showers by morning as it clears to the east. Overnight lows will fall to between 7°C and 11°C, with south-westerly winds veering westerly and moderating.
Sunday will resume with a mix of sunshine and passing showers, most frequent across the western half of the country. Daytime temperatures will mirror Saturday’s values, and winds will remain moderate from the west.
Early Week Forecast: Brief Dry Interlude Before Another Atlantic System Arrives
Monday is expected to be predominantly dry with bright or sunny spells and only isolated showers through daylight hours. However, increasing cloud cover from the west during the evening will signal the approach of another Atlantic frontal boundary.
Overnight Monday into Tuesday, a more organised spell of rain will become widespread, with freshening south-westerly winds, later veering westerly and easing. Rainfall totals may exceed 25mm (1 inch) in parts of the west and northwest, while the south and east are likely to receive more modest accumulations of around 5–10mm.
Midweek Outlook: Cooler and Breezy with Frequent Showers
From Tuesday through Friday, conditions will turn somewhat cooler, with daytime maxima ranging from 13°C to 16°C in a moderate westerly breeze. Showers will occur daily, heaviest and most persistent across western counties—particularly West Munster, Connacht, and Ulster—while eastern areas will see drier intervals and longer sunny spells.
Looking Ahead: Potential for High Pressure Influence Late Week
By next weekend, a ridge of high pressure extending northeastward from the Azores may bring increasingly settled conditions to the south and east of Ireland. However, the northwest is likely to remain more changeable and breezy under the influence of residual Atlantic systems.
Into the following week, early model indications suggest a continued build of high pressure, though confidence remains low regarding its precise positioning and influence. Temperatures are forecast to remain near or slightly below the seasonal average initially, with a potential uptick toward more seasonable or above-average values later in the period.
Weather Models
Forecast data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) covering the next 16 days up to 16 June points rising air pressure and temperatures. The GFS ensemble model runs 32 variations to account for forecast uncertainties. Data is taken for a sample Midlands location. The red line indicates the median of all 32 variations.
