A tropical disturbance near the Cabo Verde Islands is showing strong signs of development, with the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) assigning it a 90% chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours.

The system, currently positioned just west of the Cabo Verde Islands (also known as Cape Verde) in the eastern tropical Atlantic, has shown increasingly organised thunderstorm and shower activity. Local reports from the islands indicate gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall, prompting weather alerts in the region.

Forecasters expect the disturbance to track west to west-northwest at speeds of 15 to 20 mph over the coming days, pushing it across the central Atlantic.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted to be above average, with meteorological agencies predicting increased tropical activity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects between 13 and 18 named storms this season, including 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher. This outlook reflects a 50% probability of above-normal activity, slightly reduced from an earlier forecast of 60%.

Colorado State University (CSU) maintains a similarly active forecast, projecting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Their prediction is based on warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a shift to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions.

AccuWeather forecasters also anticipate increased tropical storm formation, especially around mid-August, with three to five named storms expected across the Atlantic basin during that period.

Several factors are driving this elevated risk. Sea surface temperatures are currently 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above average, which, combined with reduced wind shear, creates favorable conditions for storm intensification. Additionally, the absence of El Niño this year further supports the likelihood of an active hurricane season.