Forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic that could develop into a tropical depression later this week or into the weekend.

The system is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorms but remains disorganised.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said conditions appear conducive for gradual development as the system moves west to west-northwest at around 15 miles per hour across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. The likelihood of it forming into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours is very low, but the chance over the next seven days is estimated at 40 per cent.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet so far, with six named storms reported by September 1. This is well below the average pace for this point in the season, which typically sees around 14 storms. Meteorologists attribute the lull to high wind shear and dry air over parts of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, which have limited storm development.

The season’s first hurricane, Erin, formed on August 11 and rapidly intensified to a Category 5 storm by August 16 before weakening offshore. While it did not make landfall, Erin brought dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast, leading to at least two fatalities and one person reported missing. Its remnants also influenced weather patterns across the North Atlantic, contributing to unsettled conditions in parts of the UK.

Following Erin, Tropical Storm Fernand formed on August 24 but was short-lived, weakening to a post-tropical cyclone by August 27. Fernand posed no direct threat to land, highlighting the variable nature of the season, with some systems intensifying rapidly while others dissipate quickly.

Forecasters now expect storm activity to pick up as the season approaches its peak in mid-September. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 13 to 18 named storms for the full season, with five to nine expected to become hurricanes and two to five potentially reaching major hurricane status.