Atlantic tropical wave under watch as hurricane season enters peak

A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa is being monitored by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), with forecasters giving it a 40 per cent chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next week.

The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour across the eastern Atlantic. While shower activity remains disorganised, environmental conditions are expected to improve gradually. The chance of development over the next 48 hours is assessed as low, near zero.

The watch comes as the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its climatological peak in mid-September. So far in 2025, six named storms have formed, including Hurricane Erin which intensified to Category 5 strength earlier in the summer. Erin reached maximum sustained winds of around 260 km/h, becoming one of the most powerful hurricanes on record in the basin.

Other named storms this year include Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Fernand. Despite the presence of one major hurricane, the season has so far been quieter than anticipated. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, a measure of overall storm activity, is running well below average.

Meteorologists attribute the relative lull to strong wind shear, intrusions of Saharan dust and suppressed thunderstorm activity across West Africa, which normally seeds Atlantic storms.

However, forecasters caution that conditions can shift quickly and activity may increase during late September and October. Climate scientists had warned in advance that the 2025 season could be more active than normal, with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic acting as additional fuel for storms.

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs until November 30th, systems that form in the tropics can occasionally influence weather in Europe, with remnants sometimes sweeping north and bringing heavy rainfall to Ireland and Britain.