Tropical wave in Atlantic could strengthen into depression this week

A tropical wave moving across the eastern Atlantic has the potential to develop into the next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The system is currently producing a large area of disorganised showers and thunderstorms. While dry and stable air is expected to inhibit development over the coming day, forecasters said conditions should gradually improve, with a tropical depression likely to form by the middle to latter part of the week as the disturbance tracks west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour.

The NHC placed the probability of development at 20 per cent within the next 48 hours, rising to 70 per cent over the course of the next week.

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season to date

Despite early predictions of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, activity so far in 2025 has been relatively subdued. Forecasts from US and university teams in May suggested that warm sea temperatures and favourable atmospheric conditions would drive a busy season with a high number of named storms and hurricanes.

The reality has been different. By mid-September only six named storms had formed and just one, Hurricane Erin, reached hurricane strength, although it briefly intensified into a powerful Category 5. Other measures of storm activity, including hurricane days, named-storm days and accumulated cyclone energy, are all running lower than expected for this point in the season.

Meteorologists say the slower pace is linked to dry and stable air across much of the tropical Atlantic, which has limited the thunderstorms that give rise to tropical cyclones. An upper-tropospheric trough has created wind shear that disrupts developing systems, while conditions over Africa have reduced the strength and number of easterly waves that often act as the seeds for Atlantic storms.

Even with this quieter start, forecasters caution that the season is far from over. September and October can often bring a late surge in storm activity, particularly in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic remains unusually warm, offering ample fuel for any systems that do develop.

The 2025 season runs until November 30th, leaving plenty of time for further storms to emerge.