Global weather models suggest that while the Atlantic looks unsettled heading into Halloween, there is currently low evidence to support the arrival of a major storm system in Ireland.

Speculation online about the remnants of the soon-to-be-named Hurricane Melissa reaching Irish shores has grown in recent days. However, computer models show few strong signals for a deep low pressure system producing a major storm event around the end of the month.

Melissa, which is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend, remains highly unpredictable. The system is currently stationary in the Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Hispaniola, and is expected to strengthen rapidly. The US National Hurricane Center continues to face challenges in forecasting its precise track over the next two to three days.

Operational model runs often build in patterns for tropical systems that emerge from the Caribbean and are later lassoed northeast on the conveyor built that is the jet stream. While this is a familiar route for ex-tropical storms that sometimes reach Ireland, current projections show little sustained support for such a scenario to develop by October 31st at this point, with Melissa more likely to be still in the western Atlantic.

The latest Global Ensemble Forecast System, which uses 21 simulations to assess uncertainty in atmospheric conditions, points to generally unsettled weather but not to a named storm. Galway was used as the reference location in this run, with the ensemble average showing no significant deepening of pressure, although some strong winds are likely at times at the turn of the month.

For now, Melissa’s evolution remains a concern for the Caribbean rather than the North Atlantic.

UPDATE (Monday 27 Oct)