Melissa: Major hurricane warning issued
Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane this weekend as it lingers over very warm Caribbean waters, with Jamaica and southern Haiti facing the risk of life-threatening flash floods and landslides.
At 2100 GMT on Friday the storm was centred about 345 km southeast of Kingston with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h. Movement is slow at 4 km/h. Meteorologists warn that the slow pace will allow Melissa to draw up deep moisture and produce prolonged heavy rainfall.
A Hurricane Watch remains in place for Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti including Port-au-Prince. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti on Friday night or Saturday and in Jamaica late Saturday into Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has indicated that a Hurricane Warning may be issued for Jamaica within the next day.
Melissa is projected to become a hurricane on Saturday and is likely to reach major hurricane strength by Sunday as it continues to intensify over warm water with low wind shear.
Rainfall is the most serious concern. Forecast totals of 380 to 635 mm are expected across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Tuesday. Localised totals of up to 890 mm are possible in the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti. The National Hurricane Center has warned that catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are likely in southern Haiti.
Jamaica’s southern coastline is at risk of a dangerous storm surge early next week if the centre of Melissa tracks close to or over the island. Surge heights of 5 to 10 feet above ground level are possible in exposed areas along the south coast. Large, powerful waves will add further hazards for coastal communities.
On its current track the storm is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week before continuing towards eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall is likely to persist beyond Tuesday as the system tracks northward.
Emergency authorities in Jamaica and Haiti are advising residents in flood-prone or landslide-prone areas to prepare now and to follow official instructions closely.
