Fifteen years after the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland closed large amounts of European airspace, a new forecasting service has been launched that could significantly reduce disruption in the event of a similar volcanic event.

The Met Office, in its role as the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), began producing higher-resolution Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) forecasts on Thursday. The service, developed in tandem with Meteo France, is expected to halve the disruption that would be caused by an eruption on the scale of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010.

Volcanic ash poses one of the greatest short-term threats to aviation. High concentrations can damage or stop jet engines, while even lower concentrations can cause operational problems. In 2010, the widespread closure of airspace led to mass cancellations and delays across Europe, with knock-on impacts for businesses, tourism and the public.

Mark Seltzer, Expert Operational Lead for VAAC London, said: “As we saw in 2010, volcanic ash eruptions in the north-east Atlantic can cause major air travel disruption due to dense flight routes and high seismic activity. With our new service we estimate that the disruption today from an eruption of Eyjafjallajökull would be half of that experienced in April 2010.”

The new QVA forecasts provide gridded ash concentration data across 12 vertical slices of the atmosphere, up to 60,000 feet, along with probability forecasts indicating the likelihood of certain concentrations being exceeded. This represents a fourfold increase in vertical detail compared with current services, with more timesteps and higher horizontal resolution.

Karen Shorey, a Met Office aviation specialist, said: “QVA data will help airlines make more informed decisions to avoid higher concentrations of ash, and will minimise the airspace that needs to be closed in the event of a future eruption.”

The service is free to airlines and the aviation industry worldwide, and seven other Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres around the world will adopt the new system in 2026.