Met Éireann outlook points to mixed start to October and mild autumn ahead

Met Éireann has issued its latest extended outlook for the coming weeks, indicating a changeable start to October before a possible shift towards more settled conditions.

The national forecaster also expects temperatures to trend above average for much of the autumn, although rainfall signals remain less certain.

For the week beginning Monday 29 September, Ireland will lie between high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure in the Atlantic. This pattern is expected to produce mixed conditions, with rainfall totals below normal in the east and south but near or above normal in the west and north. Mean air temperatures are forecast to be close to the long-term average.

In the week starting 6 October there is a weak tendency towards high pressure which could bring more settled weather. Rainfall amounts are expected to be below the seasonal norm with temperatures again close to the average for the time of year.

The outlook for the week of 13 October continues to show a weak trend for high pressure dominating Ireland’s weather. Rainfall totals are forecast to remain below the October average and mean air temperatures are predicted to stay close to seasonal norms.

By the week of 20 October Met Éireann says forecast signals are much weaker. There is a slight trend towards more unsettled conditions with rainfall possibly rising above normal levels. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above average.

Looking further ahead, the seasonal forecast for October, November and December points to a warmer than average autumn. Mean temperatures are expected to trend between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees above normal overall. Colder spells with the potential for winter hazards could still occur later in the period.

Rainfall projections are less certain. There is a slight signal for above average rainfall in October and a trend towards below average rainfall in November. The signal for December is more mixed, with the potential for both wetter and drier spells. Sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to remain slightly above average throughout the period.