Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation programme, has issued its latest outlook for the upcoming northern hemisphere winter.

The forecast highlights significant uncertainty around the atmospheric circulation patterns that will influence Europe’s weather in the months ahead.

However, the multi-system signal points to lower-than-average sea-level pressure over northern parts of the continent.

This pattern is consistent with a higher likelihood of milder-than-average temperatures across much of Europe and above-average precipitation in northern regions.

Copernicus says La Niña conditions are expected to persist across tropical regions through the early part of the forecast period, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific gradually easing later on.

While models agree on both the direction of the Niño indices and the duration of the event, there remains uncertainty over how strong it will be.