Autumn outlook for Ireland: rain early, mild overall

Ireland is set to experience a wet start to September with unsettled Atlantic weather dominating the coming fortnight, according to Met Éireann’s latest extended forecast.

Low pressure systems are expected to bring above-average rainfall during the first week of September, particularly across the southwest, west, and northwest, while temperatures are likely to remain broadly in line with seasonal norms or slightly below in places.

The second week may see a slight improvement as pressure increases, though parts of the west and northwest could still experience rainfall above the seasonal average. Elsewhere, precipitation is forecast to be average or below normal, with temperatures staying typical for the time of year. Confidence in the weather pattern drops slightly from the third week onward, but overall rainfall is expected to remain slightly above average, with temperatures close to seasonal norms.

Looking further ahead to the September-October-November period, Met Éireann’s seasonal models suggest above-average temperatures for Ireland, likely trending between 0.5 and 1.0°C higher than usual. Rainfall is less certain, with alternating wetter and drier spells, although drier periods are more likely at times during October. Sea surface temperatures around the Irish coast are also forecast to remain above average, ranging between 0.5 and 2.0°C warmer than normal, adding to the mild autumn signal.