Ireland is set for a mild and unsettled start to winter, according to Met Éireann’s latest monthly forecast issued on Friday.

Atlantic low pressure systems will dominate the first half of November, bringing frequent rain and above average temperatures across the country.

From Monday 10 to Sunday 16 November, conditions will remain unsettled with widespread showers and heavy downpours. Rainfall totals are expected to exceed seasonal norms, particularly in southern and eastern counties. Temperatures will stay mild and frost-free.

The following week may see a shift as high pressure edges closer to Ireland. While some rain is still expected, longer dry spells could emerge. Rainfall amounts are forecast to dip slightly below average. Temperatures will trend closer to normal with a chance of overnight frost.

Week three, beginning Monday 24 November, is likely to bring a return to more unsettled weather. Low pressure systems will again influence conditions, leading to slightly above average rainfall. Temperatures will rise just above seasonal norms, reducing the likelihood of frost.

Confidence in the outlook for early December remains low. However, current trends suggest continued unsettled conditions with nearby low pressure. Rainfall is expected to be close to or slightly above average. Temperatures will remain higher than normal.

Looking ahead to the November to January period, seasonal models from the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate a warmer than average winter overall. Mean temperatures are expected to be between 0.5 and 1.0 degrees Celsius above normal. Despite the mild trend, colder spells with potential winter hazards may still occur.

Rainfall projections are less certain. The models suggest a mix of wetter and drier than average periods over the three months. Sea surface temperatures around Ireland and across the Atlantic are forecast to remain above average, with the strongest anomalies expected in December and January.