Provisional data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that 2025 is likely to rank among the three warmest years on record. October 2025 was the third warmest October globally since records began.

The global average surface air temperature for October was 15.30 degrees Celsius. This is 0.40 degrees above the 1991 to 2020 average and 1.34 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial baseline. Only October 2019 and 2023 recorded higher temperatures.

From January to October, the global average temperature is the second highest ever recorded. If current trends continue, 2025 could surpass 2016 and 2020 and may challenge the record set in 2023.

In Europe, October temperatures were 1.30 degrees above the 1991 to 2020 average. Central and eastern regions were particularly warm. Above average temperatures were also recorded in parts of Canada, Greenland and the Middle East.

The report highlights the influence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific and unusually high sea surface temperatures across much of the world’s oceans.

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus, said the persistent record-breaking temperatures are a clear signal of the accelerating pace of climate change. She called for urgent action to reduce emissions and adapt to a warming world.

“We are now in the decade where the 1.5°C limit is likely to be exceeded, highlighting the accelerating pace of climate change and the urgent need for action,” she added. “October 2025 was the third-warmest October on record globally, and while 2025 may not be the hottest year, it is almost certain to rank in the top three. The last three years saw exceptional temperatures, and the average for 2023–2025 is likely to exceed 1.5°C, the first time for a three-year period.”

The findings come during COP30 in Brazil and add to growing concern among scientists about the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events.