2025 is on track to be one of the warmest on record in the United Kingdom, according to provisional data from the UK Met Office, potentially surpassing 2022 to become the hottest year ever recorded.

Up to Sunday 21 December, the UK’s mean temperature for the year is projected at 10.05°C, slightly above the 10.03°C recorded in 2022. While a colder spell is expected over Christmas and into early 2026, the Met Office says it is “more likely than not” that 2025 will finish as the warmest year on record, joining 2022 and 2023 in the top three.

The UK’s climate records, which extend back to 1884, show that four of the last five years now rank among the top five warmest, and all of the ten warmest years have occurred within the past two decades. If confirmed, 2025 will be only the second year in observational records where the UK’s annual mean temperature exceeds 10°C.

Mike Kendon, senior scientist in the Met Office’s climate information team, said the trend of rising temperatures is “extraordinary.” He noted that since the start of the 21st century, new records for annual mean temperature have been set six times, each warmer than the last. “Over the last four decades we have seen the UK’s annual temperature rise by around 1.0°C. In terms of our climate, we are living in extraordinary times,” he said.

The provisional ranking of the UK’s warmest years is currently: 2025 (10.05°C*), 2022 (10.03°C), 2023 (9.97°C), 2014 (9.88°C), and 2024 (9.79°C). The final figure for 2025 may change slightly depending on temperatures over the remaining days of the year.

The Met Office will release a full provisional analysis of climate statistics for the UK and its regions in the New Year.