Ireland is facing a much lower risk of electricity blackouts this winter, according to EirGrid’s Winter Outlook for 2025/2026.

The report, published this week, shows a marked improvement in the country’s generation adequacy compared to last year, with the national electricity system expected to operate well within the risk limits set by the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment.

The key risk metric used by EirGrid, known as the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), is forecast at just 1.1 hours for the five-month winter period. That figure is significantly below the three-hour annual standard and represents a sharp drop from last winter’s LOLE of 3.6 hours. Two years ago, the figure stood at 21 hours, and the winter before that, it reached 51 hours.

The improved outlook is attributed to a combination of new generation sources, the completion of the 500 MW Greenlink Interconnector with Britain, and emergency generation capacity secured through the Commission for Regulation of Utilities’ Security of Supply Programme. Additional battery storage and gas-fired peaker plants have also been added to the system through the Capacity Market.

While the grid may still enter an Amber Alert state during periods of low wind or reduced imports, EirGrid says the probability of entering a Red Alert emergency state is low. Protocols are in place with large energy users to reduce demand if needed, helping to protect supply to homes and businesses.

Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment Darragh O’Brien welcomed the report, noting that without the additional generation secured in recent years, the risk level would be 14 times higher. He said the findings reflect the success of coordinated efforts between his department, EirGrid and the CRU to strengthen Ireland’s electricity system.

The report also highlights the impact of weather on demand, with colder temperatures driving up consumption. Last winter saw a new peak demand record of 6,024 MW during a cold snap in January. For the coming season, peak demand is forecast to reach 6,044 MW.

EirGrid’s Director of System Operations, Diarmaid Gillespie, said the reduced risk is a positive development and reflects the grid’s growing resilience. He added that EirGrid will continue to balance supply and demand in real time while planning for Ireland’s long-term energy needs.

Click on the below image to view the report.