Scientists to Map Ireland’s Climate Risks Across Time

Maynooth University has been awarded €600,000 by Met Éireann to lead a new research project aimed at improving Ireland’s capacity to understand and prepare for climate extremes.

The project, known as EXACT (Extremes Across Climates and Timeframes), will be led by Prof Conor Murphy of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (ICARUS), in collaboration with Dr Amr Mahfouz of the university’s School of Business and Prof Peter Thorne of ICARUS.

EXACT will draw on Ireland’s extensive historical climate records alongside Met Éireann’s TRANSLATE climate projections to examine how events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves have changed over time, and how their likelihood could shift under different climate change scenarios.

A particular focus will be on so-called “compound extremes” — events where multiple hazards occur together or in rapid succession, such as heavy rainfall following drought, or concurrent heatwaves and dry conditions. These combinations can lead to significantly greater impacts than single events in isolation.

The research will also trace the drivers of past extremes and link them to future risks, creating clear “climate storylines” that connect hazard, vulnerability and impact. The aim is to make scientific information more accessible for planners, policymakers and communities, supporting informed decisions on adaptation.

Prof Murphy said there was an urgent need to bridge scientific research and practical decision-making.
“With climate extremes becoming more frequent and complex, we need to understand not just how these events are changing, but how they impact people, places and sectors,” he said. “Through EXACT, we aim to develop accessible storylines of past and future extremes to guide adaptation and help build a more climate-resilient Ireland.”

Met Éireann’s Research Funding and Support Manager, Dr Patrick Fournet, said the project would strengthen the organisation’s flagship TRANSLATE programme.

“We are delighted to provide direct funding to Maynooth University for the EXACT project,” he said. “Building on our longstanding collaboration with researchers, we are proud to support this work in our shared mission to maximise the impact of research in the service of society.”