UK Met Office Deploys New Space Weather Forecasting System
The UK Met Office has begun operational use of a new space weather forecasting suite that enables real-time modelling of the upper atmosphere for the first time.
The system is expected to improve forecasts of solar activity impacts on satellites, aviation, communications and GPS services.
Developed by the University of Birmingham in collaboration with Lancaster University, the Universities of Leeds, Bath and Leicester, and the British Antarctic Survey, the Advanced Ensemble Networked Assimilation System is now running on the Met Office’s new supercomputer.
The suite includes three models. The Birmingham-led system focuses on the ionosphere and thermosphere. Lancaster University developed ODRAM, which models disruptions to high-frequency radio communications, particularly relevant to polar aviation routes.
The new capability allows the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre to assimilate near real-time data on the ionosphere and thermosphere and combine it with solar forecasts. This enables more accurate predictions of space weather impacts and supports mitigation strategies for affected services.
The modelling suite was delivered under the Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme, funded by the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund. The programme aims to enhance the UK’s ability to monitor and forecast space weather.
Professor Ian McCrea, SWIMMR Programme Lead at STFC RAL Space, said the models represent a significant advance in the UK’s capacity to understand and forecast conditions in the upper atmosphere. He said the tools will support a wide range of applications, including radio communications and satellite orbit prediction.
