Hurricane Erin holds major status as it moves northwest
Hurricane Erin has shown signs of weakening, with its cloud pattern becoming less organised due to dry air intrusion and increased northerly wind shear, according to the latest advisory from the United States National Hurricane Center.
Despite this, Erin remains a powerful storm with maximum sustained winds estimated at 120 knots, or about 222 kilometres per hour. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is due to collect fresh data later today to confirm the storm’s current strength.
The hurricane is moving northwest at around 17 kilometres per hour and is expected to turn northwards over the coming days before accelerating northeastward into the northern Atlantic later this week. While significant strengthening is not anticipated, forecasters believe Erin will retain major hurricane status through the middle of the week as it continues to move over warm waters.
The expanding wind field of the storm is already producing rough seas across much of the western Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has warned that the scale of the circulation means the risk of strong winds may be underestimated in standard forecast products.
Heavy rain is forecast for Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos and parts of the Bahamas, raising the potential for flash flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas, spreading into parts of the central Bahamas into Tuesday. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely to affect beaches in the Bahamas, along much of the east coast of the United States, in Bermuda and in Atlantic Canada in the coming days.
Forecasters also say tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding could reach the Outer Banks of North Carolina from Wednesday, where tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued. Strong winds may also reach Bermuda from Thursday as Erin tracks northward.
Potential impact on Ireland
Ireland is set to remain largely dry and warm for much of the coming week, but the remnants of Hurricane Erin are expected to bring more unsettled conditions by midweek.
Should Erin reach Irish waters, it is forecast to do so in a weakened, post-tropical state. The system is expected to lose its hurricane characteristics well before entering the northeast Atlantic, although it may still produce periods of rain, wind, and generally unsettled weather.
Long-range forecasts from the GEM, ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the remnants of Erin could affect Ireland from late Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
