Settled conditions to last into next week

High pressure will continue to dominate Ireland’s weather well into next week, with largely dry and sunny conditions to continue in the meantime.

While some scattered light showers cannot be ruled out in coastal counties of the west and north at times, the primary rainfall risk centres on Sunday and Monday when an area of low pressure will edge close to Ireland’s south coast.

The most likely outcome is scattered showers feeding across the southern half of Ireland from the southeast.

Overall, many areas will escape completely dry for the next 10 days.

Temperatures will gradually reach the high teens and low 20s later this week and into next week. It will remain a few degrees cooler in coastal districts of the southeast and east due to light to gentle northeast to east winds. Even here, it will feel warm in any sunshine.

Temperatures dropped below zero Celsius in a few parts of Leinster overnight. Nights will be less cold for the remainder of the week, with only a slight chance of frost in well-sheltered inland locations of Ulster and Leinster.

With increasing Soil Moisture Deficits (SMDs), grass growth will continue to slow as the coming week progresses.

Drying conditions will remain good to excellent over the next fortnight.

The latest output from the European (ECMWF) weather model for the next 16 days up to 21 May supports low rainfall totals, with a chance of showers in the second half of the forecast period. The ensembles model, which runs 50 forecast variations (perturbations) to account for uncertainties in input data, also indicates a rise in temperatures in the coming week. The red lines in the graphic suggest the average of all 50 variations.

Model data, which is taken from a sample location in the Midlands, highlights the continuation of high pressure near or over Ireland up to the end of the forecasting period at which point there is indications of waning high pressure and Atlantic systems encroaching from the west.