Today is St Swithin’s Day, a date steeped in weather folklore thanks to an old rhyme that many still quote:

“St Swithin’s Day, if thou dost rain, for forty days it will remain;
St Swithin’s Day, if thou be fair, for forty days ’twill rain nae mair.”

With scattered heavy showers—some of them thundery—forecast across Ireland today, the age-old superstition might suggest a soggy few weeks lie ahead. But is there any truth to it?

A Rainy Legend

St Swithin was a 9th-century bishop of Winchester who, according to legend, wished to be buried outdoors so that “the rain might fall upon his grave.” But when his remains were moved inside the cathedral, the skies supposedly wept for 40 days straight in protest.

Since then, July 15th has become a symbolic date in Irish and British weather lore, with the idea that the day’s weather sets the tone for the next 40. And given the frequent mix of sun and showers in Irish summers, it’s easy to see how the tale stuck.

No Science Behind the Saying

Charming as it is, modern meteorology doesn’t back the legend. There’s no evidence that weather on July 15th influences the weeks that follow.

In fact, some of Ireland’s warmest summers still saw rain on this day:

In 1976, Dublin and Cork both recorded over an inch of rain on July 15th.
In 1995, half of the country’s synoptic stations logged rainfall.
In 2018, every station across Ireland reported some rain—even though all three years turned out to be notably warm and dry overall.

With July and August among Ireland’s most changeable months, a single wet day doesn’t necessarily mean a washout ahead.

Today’s Forecast

Today’s conditions are a textbook example of Irish summer variability. A blustery Atlantic flow is driving scattered heavy showers across the country, with the chance of localised downpours and thunder.

However, a clearance from the west is expected later this evening. Temperatures will range from 15 to 19°C, warmest in inland areas of the southeast and Midlands, with moderate westerly winds keeping it breezy.

What’s Next?

Despite the superstition, the forecast doesn’t suggest 40 days of rain ahead. That said, unsettled conditions are expected to continue, especially in Connacht and Munster, where more persistent rainfall is likely through midweek.

In the longer term, forecasters are watching for signs of more settled weather returning before the end of the month—but as always in Ireland, it’s best to keep the raincoat within reach.